LeBron James had clear objectives from the first time he became a free agent. In the summer of 2010, he made “The Decision,” a move purely driven by basketball considerations. He wanted championships, and joining the Heat offered him the best chance.
In the summer of 2014, when James became a free agent for the second time, his goal was even more focused. This time, it wasn’t just about winning championships; it was about bringing at least one championship trophy to his home state of Ohio’s northeast region. To achieve this goal, he had no choice but to join the Cavaliers.
James also dabbled in free agency markets in 2015 and 2016, but those were more about leverage, asserting control in negotiations. James truly entered free agency for the third time in 2018, and to this day, we understand his motivations for joining the Lakers less than his other decisions. There were no TV specials, no heartfelt letters; one day he was a Cavalier, the next day, a Laker.
Did James come to the West to make movies? That was a popular theory at the time. Of course, James denied it. Was it about a change in lifestyle? That sounds more plausible. James might have been the most iconic figure in Ohio’s history, which surely made his everyday life there a bit complicated. Los Angeles is more celebrity-friendly, and it sets a smoother path for his two sons, who seem to be pursuing their own NBA careers. And undoubtedly, the weather in Los Angeles is better. The Lakers had the operational flexibility that the Cavaliers lacked, and the team later traded for Anthony Davis, helping James secure his fourth championship.
All of this leads us to James’s potential fourth foray into free agency, which could happen this summer, depending on whether he chooses to exercise his player option for next season with the Lakers. In the past, we either knew James’s motives explicitly or could at least speculate reasonably. But now? We genuinely don’t know James’s motives because we’ve never seen him as a free agent in this situation before.
As a professional athlete, James has done it all. Four championships, Finals MVPs with three different teams (unprecedented), four regular-season MVPs, possibly a third Olympic gold medal this summer, and a record-setting 20 All-Star selections. One of James’s basketball-playing sons is already in college, and the other is about to enter his senior year of high school. While their futures aren’t set in stone, they largely control their own destinies. Lifestyle concerns might not weigh as heavily on a soon-to-be 40-year-old player, who may finish the remainder of his career in a short time. Perhaps James doesn’t want to commit to a new city for four or five years, but what about one or two? It’s not out of the question.
Have there been other free agents who had nothing left to prove? Perhaps Michael Jordan in 1996, but his decision was quite clear. Jordan took abysmally low salaries for almost his entire career, and the “Bird Rights” allowed the Bulls to pay him any amount, eventually re-signing him for $30 million per year, roughly 124% of the team’s entire salary cap at the time. In today’s terms, that’s akin to James re-signing with the Lakers for an estimated $176 million for just the next season. Jordan spent his entire career with the Bulls, so Chicago was undoubtedly more in line with his lifestyle, and everything catered to his interests.
But James? We might know his interests, but we don’t know which interests take precedence, and these interests may not necessarily align.
Is James prioritizing economic considerations? It’s possible, especially if he plans to purchase an expansion team in Las Vegas, where the Lakers’ advantage in this regard isn’t as significant as the Bulls’ in 1996 were for Jordan. Unlike most teams attempting to re-sign free agents, the Lakers, due to the “over-38 rule,” can’t offer James a fifth-year contract, limiting the deal to three years. According to ESPN’s Bobby Marks, James and the Lakers could have two forms of a max contract: one for $162 million with a no-trade clause, or one for $164.3 million without it. These are substantial salaries, but other teams in the free-agent market are offering James similar max contracts (slightly lower at $157.5 million), starting at 105% of his current $47.6 million salary.
What about lifestyle? Los Angeles clearly has the advantage. Aside from climate, celebrity friendliness, and convenience for off-court business endeavors, familiarity is a strong factor, and James has been here for a while; he needs convincing reasons to leave.
Another factor looming large is “my motivation,” as James told Sports Illustrated’s Lee Jenkins in 2016, “is this ghost I’m chasing. The ghost played in Chicago.” Whether James admits it or not, his career’s accolades are factors behind these decisions. He wants to surpass Jordan completely, regardless of the possibility. It can be argued that the Lakers provide him the best path to achieving this goal because he’s already adapted here. How many legendary players can be closely associated with four teams? Frankly, having three is impressive enough. Jordan spent almost his entire career with the Bulls. Magic Johnson, Larry Bird, Bill Russell, Kobe Bryant, and Tim Duncan all wore one jersey throughout their careers, with Kareem Abdul-Jabbar wearing two, and Wilt Chamberlain switching teams. These associations influence how these stars are remembered in people’s minds.
Perhaps some other motivation will outweigh pure numbers on the contract. Early in the season, rumors swirled several times about James and the Knicks. If James could lead the Knicks back to the top of the NBA after more than 50 years, it would significantly elevate his historical standing. James’s agent Rich Paul recently repaired relations with former mentor Leon Rose, who currently runs the Knicks. If the Knicks are willing, they also have draft assets to snag Bronny.
The logistics of this are trickier. The Knicks don’t have enough salary cap space this summer, so James will likely have to opt-in to his player option and then be traded to the Knicks to avoid hard-capped issues on the first day of free agency. What’s a reasonable trade package for the Lakers? They likely don’t want Julius Randle, nor do they want to rebuild or retool around Davis, but Randle’s $30 million salary must be included in the trade. What about the remaining $20+ million? The simplest answer is Bogdan Bogdanovic, whose contract is currently partially guaranteed but holds little value to the Lakers. Would the Knicks part ways with one or more core players from Villanova? What about center Mitchell Robinson? The last question is crucial; the Knicks have assets to trade for almost any player, but would they realistically invest assets in a veteran approaching his forties? It’s an intriguing assumption, and it’s hard to imagine both the Lakers and the Knicks reaching a reasonable compromise on trade chips.
So, we’re looking for another way to extend the glory. What if I told you there’s an option that might not be as enticing as the Knicks but a team that hasn’t won a championship in just as long, and James could land there directly, the head coach’s capabilities are significantly improved, there are two star teammates, and even some decent role players? If James’s top priority is winning a championship in the near future, then