NBA regular season is approaching its final stretch with each team left with only 2 games to play. On the 13th, all Eastern Conference teams will play at 1:00 AM, while Western Conference teams will play at 3:30 AM to prevent any intentional tanking. As the regular season winds down, ESPN updates the championship probabilities: Lakers 0.2%, Clippers 5%, and one team with a staggering 33.9%.
Teams with 0% chance: Hornets, Grizzlies, Raptors, Wizards, Jazz, Spurs, Trail Blazers, Nets, Rockets, Pistons, Bulls, Hawks. Among them, 10 teams won’t even make it to the play-in games. The Bulls and Hawks, although holding onto a slim hope, lack strength and key players due to injuries, making it unlikely for them to advance.
Teams with less than 1% chance: Warriors, Kings, Lakers 0.2%, Suns, Magic 0.7%. The Lakers and Warriors are basically at the bottom of the Western Conference, with 2 teams in the bottom half of the play-in bracket. Even if the Lakers and Warriors make it to the playoffs, facing the Nuggets in the first round seems insurmountable. The Magic’s roster lacks playoff experience, especially with their core player, Cole Anthony, being a sophomore. Although the Suns have a slightly better record, they’re still in the seventh position in the West, struggling to avoid the play-in games and lacking a cohesive strategy throughout the season.
Teams with greater than 1% but less than or equal to 5% chance: Pelicans 1.4%, Bucks 1.8%, Pacers 2.1%, Knicks 2.3%, 76ers 3.3%, Cavaliers 4.2%, Clippers 5%. The Pelicans receive good news with Ingram returning against the Lakers, posing a threat to any team in the West due to their immense talent, especially with Zion making his playoff debut. The Bucks face uncertainty with Giannis’ injury, making them the weakest team in the top half of the Eastern Conference, potentially facing the Heat as opponents. In contrast, the 76ers are fortunate with Embiid’s return, restoring the team to a contender status.
The Pacers heavily rely on offense and lack defense, posing a challenge for any opponent. The Knicks, dubbed the second strongest team in the East by O’Neal, boast a strong defense led by Barrett, capable of tough matchups. The Cavaliers are defensively strong, with Mitchell anchoring their offense. The Clippers are formidable but face the toughest opponent in the first round, with less than a 50% chance of advancing.
Teams with greater than 5% chance: Heat 6.1%, Timberwolves 7%, Mavericks 7.3%, Thunder 11.2%, Nuggets 12.3%, Celtics 33.9%. The Heat are eager to face the Bucks in the first round, as their strength is underestimated, not solely judged by their regular season performance. The Timberwolves’ potential depends on Towns’ recovery, who is crucial to their offense. After a period of rest, the Thunder’s core players are finally injury-free, aiming for the championship. The Mavericks have shown outstanding performance post-All-Star break, with a well-balanced roster featuring Doncic and Irving, making them the toughest defensive team in the playoffs.
As defending champions, the Nuggets maintain their core lineup, led by Jokic, the league’s strongest superstar, posing a challenge for any team. The Celtics’ strength lies in their overall talent, with all five positions boasting All-Star-level players, making them the favorites in the Eastern Conference.
